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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."